Dr Nicola Perra
Reader in Applied Mathematics
School of Mathematical Sciences
Queen Mary University of London
Queen Mary University of London
Research
Network Science, Data Science, Digital Epidemiology
Interests
Nicola uses and develops methods in Mathematics, Network, Data, and Computational Social Science to characterise technological systems whose dynamics are driven by human behaviour (i.e., socio-technical systems). He develops mathematical and computational models to study dynamical processes taking place on top of them. He considers a wide variety of phenomena ranging from infectious diseases and cyber threats to ideas and communication. He tackles practical problems with clear immediate applications such as the development of realistic models to capture the spreading of infectious diseases, ideas, computer viruses, behavioural changes, and teams' success. He also considers more theoretical issues such as the study of time-varying networks and the development of novel epidemic models.Biography
In 2022, Nicola joined Queen Mary as a Reader in Applied Mathematics. Prior to this, he held the position of Associate Professor in Network Science at Greenwich University. Before that, he served as a postdoctoral research assistant at both Northeastern University and Indiana University. He earned his Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from the University of Cagliari, Italy, in 2011.
Publications
Publications of specific relevance to the Centre for Complex Systems2024
Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Vespignani A and Perra N (2024). Real-time Estimates of the Emergence and Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: A Modeling Approach. Epidemics: The Journal on Infectious Disease Dynamics, Elsevier 03-12-2024
Gozzi N, Comini N and Perra N (2024). Bridging the digital divide: mapping Internet connectivity evolution, inequalities, and resilience in six Brazilian cities. EPJ Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 13 (1) 08-11-2024
Manna A, D'Amico L, Tizzoni M, Karsai M and Perra N (2024). Generalized Contact Matrices Allow Integrating Socio-economic Variables into Epidemic Models. Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science 11-10-2024
Gozzi N, Comini N and Perra N (2024). Bridging the Digital Divide: Mapping Internet Connectivity Evolution, Inequalities, and Resilience in six Brazilian Cities. 03-06-2024
Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Y Piontti AP, Mu K, Gozzi N, Ajelli M, Perra N and Vespignani A (2024). A multiscale modeling framework for Scenario Modeling: Characterizing the heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US. Epidemics, Elsevier vol. 47 05-03-2024
Carli F, Foini P, Gozzi N, Perra N and Schifanella R (2024). Modeling teams performance using deep representational learning on graphs. EPJ Data Science, Springer Science and Business Media LLC vol. 13 (1) 19-01-2024
2023
Gao S, Dai X, Wang L, Perra N and Wang Z (2023). Epidemic Spreading in Metapopulation Networks Coupled With Awareness Propagation. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) vol. 53 (12), 7686-7698. 29-11-2023
De Gaetano A, Bajardi P, Gozzi N, Perra N, Perrotta D and Paolotti D (2023). Behavioral Changes Associated With COVID-19 Vaccination: Cross-National Online Survey. Journal of Medical Internet Research, JMIR Publications vol. 25 31-10-2023
Jaramillo AM, Williams HTP, Perra N and Menezes R (2023). The structure of segregation in co-authorship networks and its impact on scientific production. EPJ Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 12 (1) 09-10-2023
Di Bona G, Bracci A, Perra N, Latora V and Baronchelli A (2023). The concept of decentralization through time and disciplines: a quantitative exploration. EPJ Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 12 (1) 03-10-2023
Chernikova A, Gozzi N, Perra N, Boboila S, Eliassi-Rad T and Oprea A (2023). Modeling self-propagating malware with epidemiological models. Applied Network Science, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1) 18-08-2023
Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Longini IMJ, Halloran ME, Perra N and Vespignani A (2023). Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study. Nature Communications, Nature Research 06-06-2023
Gozzi N, Comini N and Perra N (2023). The adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the role of digital infrastructure during the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia, Ecuador, and El Salvador. EPJ Data Science, Springer Science and Business Media LLC vol. 12 (1) 06-06-2023
Sun K, Ubaldi E, Zhang J, Karsai M and Perra N (2023). The Effects of Local and Global Link Creation Mechanisms on Contagion Processes Unfolding on Time-Varying Networks. Temporal Network Theory 313-333. 01-01-2023
2022
Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Perra N and Vespignani A (2022). Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study. 18-11-2022
Bracci A, Boehnke J, ElBahrawy A, Perra N, Teytelboym A and Baronchelli A (2022). Macroscopic properties of buyer-seller networks in online marketplaces. PNAS Nexus, Oxford University Press 06-10-2022
Gozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Perra N and Vespignani A (2022). Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 18 (5) 25-05-2022
Perra N, Tizzoni M, Nsoesie E, Gauvin L, Karsai M and Bansal S (2022). Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases. Nature Communications, Nature Research 24-05-2022
Gozzi N, Comini N and Perra N (2022). The adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the role of digital infrastructure during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Colombia, Ecuador, and El Salvador. 24-02-2022
Chernikova A, Gozzi N, Boboila S, Angadi P, Loughner J, Wilden M, Perra N, Eliassi-Rad T and Oprea A (2022). Cyber Network Resilience Against Self-Propagating Malware Attacks. Computer Security – ESORICS 2022 531-550. 01-01-2022
2021
Briand SC, Cinelli M, Nguyen T, Lewis R, Prybylski D, Valensise CM, Colizza V, Tozzi AE, Perra N, Baronchelli A, Tizzoni M, Zollo F, Scala A, Purnat T, Czerniak C, Kucharski AJ, Tshangela A, Zhou L and Quattrociocchi W (2021). Infodemics: A new challenge for public health. Cell, Elsevier vol. 184 (25), 6010-6014. 01-12-2021
Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Viboud C and Vespignani A (2021). Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave. Nature, Springer Nature vol. 600 (7887), 127-132. 25-10-2021
Cronin B, Perra N, Rocha LEC, Zhu Z, Pallotti F, Gorgoni S, Conaldi G and De Vita R (2021). Ethical implications of network data in business and management settings. Social Networks, Elsevier vol. 67, 29-40. 01-10-2021
Gozzi N, Bajardi P and Perra N (2021). The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 17 (9) 10-09-2021
Gozzi N, Scudeler M, Paolotti D, Baronchelli A and Perra N (2021). Self-initiated behavioral change and disease resurgence on activity-driven networks. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 104 (1) 01-07-2021
Gozzi N, Tizzoni M, Chinazzi M, Ferres L, Vespignani A and Perra N (2021). Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile. Nature Communications, Springer Nature vol. 12 (1) 23-04-2021
Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM, Viboud C and Vespignani A (2021). Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave in Europe and the United States. 26-03-2021
Perra N (2021). Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review. Physics Reports, Elsevier vol. 913, 1-52. 13-02-2021
2020
Gozzi N, Tizzani M, Starnini M, Ciulla F, Paolotti D, Panisson A and Perra N (2020). Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis. Journal of Medical Internet Research, JMIR Publications vol. 22 (10) 12-10-2020
Davis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM, Viboud C and Vespignani A (2020). Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. 07-07-2020
Gozzi N, Perrotta D, Paolotti D and Perra N (2020). Towards a data-driven characterization of behavioral changes induced by the seasonal flu. PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 16 (5) 13-05-2020
Davis JT, Perra N, Zhang Q, Moreno Y and Vespignani A (2020). Phase transitions in information spreading on structured populations. Nature Physics, Springer Nature vol. 16 (5), 590-596. 02-03-2020
2019
Aleta A, Meloni S, Perra N and Moreno Y (2019). Explore with caution: mapping the evolution of scientific interest in physics. EPJ Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1) 11-09-2019
Perra N and Rocha LEC (2019). Modelling opinion dynamics in the age of algorithmic personalisation. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 9 (1) 13-05-2019
Brett T, Loukas G, Moreno Y and Perra N (2019). Spreading of computer viruses on time-varying networks. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 99 (5) 01-05-2019
Sun K, Ubaldi E, Zhang J, Karsai M and Perra N (2019). The Effects of Local and Global Link Creation Mechanisms on Contagion Processes Unfolding on Time-Varying Networks. Temporal Network Theory 305-324. 01-01-2019
Pastore y Piontti A, Perra N, Rossi L, Samay N and Vespignani A (2019). Charting the Next Pandemic, Modeling Infectious Disease Spreading in the Data Science Age. 01-01-2019
2018
Liu Q-H, Xiong X, Zhang Q and Perra N (2018). Epidemic spreading on time-varying multiplex networks. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 98 (6) 01-12-2018
Nadini M, Sun K, Ubaldi E, Starnini M, Rizzo A and Perra N (2018). Epidemic spreading in modular time-varying networks. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1) 05-02-2018
Massaro E, Ganin A, Perra N, Linkov I and Vespignani A (2018). Resilience management during large-scale epidemic outbreaks. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1) 30-01-2018
Weng L, Karsai M, Perra N, Menczer F and Flammini A (2018). Attention on Weak Ties in Social and Communication Networks. Complex Spreading Phenomena in Social Systems 213-228. 01-01-2018
2017
Brownstein JS, Chu S, Marathe A, Marathe MV, Nguyen AT, Paolotti D, Perra N, Perrotta D, Santillana M, Swarup S, Tizzoni M, Vespignani A, Vullikanti AKS, Wilson ML and Zhang Q (2017). Combining Participatory Influenza Surveillance with Modeling and Forecasting: Three Alternative Approaches. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications vol. 3 (4) 01-11-2017
Pozzana I, Sun K and Perra N (2017). Epidemic spreading on activity-driven networks with attractiveness. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 96 (4) 01-10-2017
Alessandretti L, Sun K, Baronchelli A and Perra N (2017). Random walks on activity-driven networks with attractiveness. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 95 (5) 01-05-2017
Ubaldi E, Vezzani A, Karsai M, Perra N and Burioni R (2017). Burstiness and tie activation strategies in time-varying social networks. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 7 (1) 13-04-2017
Zhang Q, Perra N, Perrotta D, Tizzoni M, Paolotti D and Vespignani A (2017). Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Fusing Digital Indicators and a Mechanistic Disease Model. Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on World Wide Web. 03-04-2017
Karsai M and Perra N (2017). Control Strategies of Contagion Processes in Time-Varying Networks. Temporal Network Epidemiology 179-197. 01-01-2017
2016
Wang Z, Bauch CT, Bhattacharyya S, d’Onofrio A, Manfredi P, Perc M, Perra N, Salathé M and Zhao D (2016). Statistical physics of vaccination. Physics Reports, Elsevier vol. 664, 1-113. 01-12-2016
Ubaldi E, Perra N, Karsai M, Vezzani A, Burioni R and Vespignani A (2016). Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 6 (1) 24-10-2016
Perra N (2016). The spreading of infectious diseases in modern socio-technical systems Comment on “Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties” by Gui-Quan Sun et al. Physics of Life Reviews, Elsevier vol. 19, 87-89. 19-09-2016
Biggerstaff M, Alper D, Dredze M, Fox S, Fung IC-H, Hickmann KS, Lewis B, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J, Tsou M-H, Velardi P, Vespignani A, Finelli L and for the Influenza Forecasting Contest Working Group (2016). Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge. BMC Infectious Diseases, Springer Nature vol. 16 (1) 22-07-2016
Borge-Holthoefer J, Perra N, Gonçalves B, González-Bailón S, Arenas A, Moreno Y and Vespignani A (2016). The dynamics of information-driven coordination phenomena: A transfer entropy analysis. Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) vol. 2 (4) 01-04-2016
2015
Sun K, Baronchelli A and Perra N (2015). Contrasting effects of strong ties on SIR and SIS processes in temporal networks. The European Physical Journal B, Springer Nature vol. 88 (12) 01-12-2015
Garcia D, Halegoua G, Mejova Y, Perra N, Pfeffer J, Ruths D, Weber I, West R and Zia L (2015). Reports of the 2015 Workshops Held at the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media. 01-12-2015
Tizzoni M, Sun K, Benusiglio D, Karsai M and Perra N (2015). The Scaling of Human Contacts and Epidemic Processes in Metapopulation Networks. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 5 (1) 19-10-2015
Mistry D, Zhang Q, Perra N and Baronchelli A (2015). Committed activists and the reshaping of status-quo social consensus. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 92 (4) 01-10-2015
Dunne C, Muller M, Perra N and Martino M (2015). VoroGraph. Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems. 18-04-2015
Zhang Q, Gioannini C, Paolotti D, Perra N, Perrotta D, Quaggiotto M, Tizzoni M and Vespignani A (2015). Social Data Mining and Seasonal Influenza Forecasts: The FluOutlook Platform. 01-01-2015
Perra N and Gonçalves B (2015). Modeling and Predicting Human Infectious Diseases. Social Phenomena 59-83. 01-01-2015
Gonçalves B and Perra N (2015). Introduction. Social Phenomena: From Data Analysis to Models 1-12. 01-01-2015
2014
Tomasello MV, Perra N, Tessone CJ, Karsai M and Schweitzer F (2014). The role of endogenous and exogenous mechanisms in the formation of R&D networks. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 4 (1) 14-07-2014
Ciulla F, Perra N, Baronchelli A and Vespignani A (2014). Damage detection via shortest-path network sampling. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 89 (5) 01-05-2014
PIONTTI APY, DA COSTA GOMES MF, SAMAY N, PERRA N and VESPIGNANI A (2014). The infection tree of global epidemics. Network Science, Cambridge University Press (CUP) vol. 2 (1), 132-137. 01-04-2014
Liu S, Perra N, Karsai M and Vespignani A (2014). Controlling Contagion Processes in Activity Driven Networks. Physical Review Letters, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 112 (11) 19-03-2014
Karsai M, Perra N and Vespignani A (2014). Time varying networks and the weakness of strong ties. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 4 (1) 10-02-2014
2013
Ribeiro B, Perra N and Baronchelli A (2013). Quantifying the effect of temporal resolution on time-varying networks. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 3 (1) 21-10-2013
Gonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A (2013). Social Networks, Contagion Processes and the Spreading of Infectious Diseases. Handbook of Systems Biology 515-527. 29-08-2013
Weng L, Ratkiewicz J, Perra N, Gonçalves B, Castillo C, Bonchi F, Schifanella R, Menczer F and Flammini A (2013). The role of information diffusion in the evolution of social networks. Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining. 11-08-2013
Liu S-Y, Baronchelli A and Perra N (2013). Contagion dynamics in time-varying metapopulation networks. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 87 (3) 01-03-2013
Mocanu D, Baronchelli A, Perra N, Gonçalves B, Zhang Q and Vespignani A (2013). The Twitter of Babel: Mapping World Languages through Microblogging Platforms. PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 8 (4) 01-01-2013
Zhang Q, Perra N, Gonçalves B, Ciulla F and Vespignani A (2013). Characterizing scientific production and consumption in Physics. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 3 (1) 01-01-2013
Gonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A (2013). Chapter 27 Social Networks, Contagion Processes and the Spreading of Infectious Diseases. Handbook of Systems Biology 515-527. 01-01-2013
2012
Perra N, Baronchelli A, Mocanu D, Gonçalves B, Pastor-Satorras R and Vespignani A (2012). Random Walks and Search in Time-Varying Networks. Physical Review Letters, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 109 (23) 04-12-2012
Tizzoni M, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Balcan D, Gonçalves B, Perra N, Colizza V and Vespignani A (2012). Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm. BMC Medicine, Springer Nature vol. 10 (1) 01-12-2012
Perra N and Vespignani A (2012). Modeling Contact and Mobility Based Social Response to the Spreading of Infectious Diseases. Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases 103-123. 28-11-2012
Ciulla F, Mocanu D, Baronchelli A, Gonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A (2012). Beating the news using social media: the case study of American Idol. EPJ Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 1 (1) 31-07-2012
Perra N, Gonçalves B, Pastor-Satorras R and Vespignani A (2012). Activity driven modeling of time varying networks. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 2 (1) 01-01-2012
2011
Meloni S, Perra N, Arenas A, Gómez S, Moreno Y and Vespignani A (2011). Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases. Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 1 (1) 01-01-2011
Perra N, Balcan D, Gonçalves B and Vespignani A (2011). Towards a Characterization of Behavior-Disease Models. PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 6 (8) 01-01-2011
Gonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A (2011). Modeling Users' Activity on Twitter Networks: Validation of Dunbar's Number. PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 6 (8) 01-01-2011
2009
Balcan D, Colizza V, Singer AC, Chouaid C, Hu H, Gonçalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Paolotti D, Van den Broeck W, Valleron A and Vespignani A (2009). Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. PLOS Currents, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 1 (Influenza) 07-12-2009
Colizza V, Vespignani A, Perra N, Poletto C, Gonçalves B, Hu H, Balcan D, Paolotti D, Van den Broeck W, Tizzoni M, Bajardi P and Ramasco JJ (2009). Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model. PLOS Currents, Public Library of Science (PLoS) vol. 1 (Influenza) 11-11-2009
Perra N, Zlatić V, Chessa A, Conti C, Donato D and Caldarelli G (2009). PageRank equation and localization in the WWW. EPL (Europhysics Letters), IOP Publishing vol. 88 (4) 01-11-2009
Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V and Vespignani A (2009). Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility. BMC Medicine, Springer Nature vol. 7 (1) 10-09-2009
Bajardi P, Poletto C, Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Ramasco JJ, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V and Vespignani A (2009). Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere. Emerging Health Threats Journal, Taylor & Francis vol. 2 (1) 11-04-2009
2008
Perra N and Fortunato S (2008). Spectral centrality measures in complex networks. Physical Review E, American Physical Society (APS) vol. 78 (3) 01-09-2008
Bajardi P, Poletto C, Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Ramasco J, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V and Vespignani A (2008). Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere. Emerging Health Threats Journal, Taylor & Francis vol. 2 01-01-2008
Grants
Grants of specific relevance to the Centre for Complex SystemsNicola Perra - US Army Lab researchNicola Perra
£71,665 U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Army Research Laboratory (24-06-2024 - 23-06-2025)