Dr Nicola Perra
Reader in Applied Mathematics
School of Mathematical Sciences
Queen Mary University of London
Queen Mary University of London
Research
Network Science, Data Science, Digital Epidemiology
Interests
Nicola uses and develops methods in Mathematics, Network, Data, and Computational Social Science to characterise technological systems whose dynamics are driven by human behaviour (i.e., socio-technical systems). He develops mathematical and computational models to study dynamical processes taking place on top of them. He considers a wide variety of phenomena ranging from infectious diseases and cyber threats to ideas and communication. He tackles practical problems with clear immediate applications such as the development of realistic models to capture the spreading of infectious diseases, ideas, computer viruses, behavioural changes, and teams' success. He also considers more theoretical issues such as the study of time-varying networks and the development of novel epidemic models.Biography
In 2022, Nicola joined Queen Mary as a Reader in Applied Mathematics. Prior to this, he held the position of Associate Professor in Network Science at Greenwich University. Before that, he served as a postdoctoral research assistant at both Northeastern University and Indiana University. He earned his Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from the University of Cagliari, Italy, in 2011.
Publications
Publications of specific relevance to the Centre for Complex Systems2024
Real-time Estimates of the Emergence and Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: A Modeling ApproachGozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Vespignani A and Perra N
Epidemics: The Journal on Infectious Disease Dynamics, Elsevier
03-12-2024
Bridging the digital divide: mapping Internet connectivity evolution, inequalities, and resilience in six Brazilian citiesGozzi N, Comini N and Perra N
Epj Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 13 (1)
08-11-2024
Generalized Contact Matrices Allow Integrating Socio-economic Variables into Epidemic ModelsManna A, D'Amico L, Tizzoni M, Karsai M and Perra N
Science Advances, American Association For The Advancement of Science
11-10-2024
Bridging the Digital Divide: Mapping Internet Connectivity Evolution, Inequalities, and Resilience in six Brazilian CitiesGozzi N, Comini N and Perra N
03-06-2024
A multiscale modeling framework for Scenario Modeling: Characterizing the heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic in the USChinazzi M, Davis JT, Y Piontti AP, Mu K, Gozzi N, Ajelli M, Perra N and Vespignani A
Epidemics, Elsevier vol. 47
05-03-2024
Modeling teams performance using deep representational learning on graphsCarli F, Foini P, Gozzi N, Perra N and Schifanella R
Epj Data Science, Springer Science and Business Media Llc vol. 13 (1)
19-01-2024
2023
Epidemic Spreading in Metapopulation Networks Coupled With Awareness PropagationGao S, Dai X, Wang L, Perra N and Wang Z
Ieee Transactions on Cybernetics, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (Ieee) vol. 53 (12), 7686-7698.
29-11-2023
Behavioral Changes Associated With COVID-19 Vaccination: Cross-National Online SurveyDe Gaetano A, Bajardi P, Gozzi N, Perra N, Perrotta D and Paolotti D
Journal of Medical Internet Research, Jmir Publications vol. 25
31-10-2023
The structure of segregation in co-authorship networks and its impact on scientific productionJaramillo AM, Williams HTP, Perra N and Menezes R
Epj Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 12 (1)
09-10-2023
The concept of decentralization through time and disciplines: a quantitative explorationDi Bona G, Bracci A, Perra N, Latora V and Baronchelli A
Epj Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 12 (1)
03-10-2023
Modeling self-propagating malware with epidemiological modelsChernikova A, Gozzi N, Perra N, Boboila S, Eliassi-Rad T and Oprea A
Applied Network Science, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1)
18-08-2023
Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling studyGozzi N, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Longini IMJ, Halloran ME, Perra N and Vespignani A
Nature Communications, Nature Research
06-06-2023
The adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the role of digital infrastructure during the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia, Ecuador, and El SalvadorGozzi N, Comini N and Perra N
Epj Data Science, Springer Science and Business Media Llc vol. 12 (1)
06-06-2023
The Effects of Local and Global Link Creation Mechanisms on Contagion Processes Unfolding on Time-Varying NetworksSun K, Ubaldi E, Zhang J, Karsai M and Perra N
In Temporal Network Theory, Springer Nature 313-333.
01-01-2023
2022
Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling studyGozzi N, Chinazzi M, Dean NE, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Perra N and Vespignani A
, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory vol. 3 (11-22)
18-11-2022
Macroscopic properties of buyer-seller networks in online marketplacesBracci A, Boehnke J, ElBahrawy A, Perra N, Teytelboym A and Baronchelli A
Pnas Nexus, Oxford University Press
06-10-2022
Anatomy of the first six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in ItalyGozzi N, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Perra N and Vespignani A
Plos Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 18 (5)
25-05-2022
Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseasesPerra N, Tizzoni M, Nsoesie E, Gauvin L, Karsai M and Bansal S
Nature Communications, Nature Research
24-05-2022
The adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the role of digital infrastructure during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Colombia, Ecuador, and El SalvadorGozzi N, Comini N and Perra N
24-02-2022
Cyber Network Resilience Against Self-Propagating Malware AttacksChernikova A, Gozzi N, Boboila S, Angadi P, Loughner J, Wilden M, Perra N, Eliassi-Rad T and Oprea A
In Computer Security – Esorics 2022, Springer Nature 531-550.
01-01-2022
2021
Infodemics: A new challenge for public healthBriand SC, Cinelli M, Nguyen T, Lewis R, Prybylski D, Valensise CM, Colizza V, Tozzi AE, Perra N, Baronchelli A, Tizzoni M, Zollo F, Scala A, Purnat T, Czerniak C, Kucharski AJ, Tshangela A, Zhou L and Quattrociocchi W
Cell, Elsevier vol. 184 (25), 6010-6014.
01-12-2021
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 waveDavis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Longini IM, Halloran ME, Viboud C and Vespignani A
Nature, Springer Nature vol. 600 (7887), 127-132.
25-10-2021
Ethical implications of network data in business and management settingsCronin B, Perra N, Rocha LEC, Zhu Z, Pallotti F, Gorgoni S, Conaldi G and De Vita R
Social Networks, Elsevier vol. 67, 29-40.
01-10-2021
The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rolloutGozzi N, Bajardi P and Perra N
Plos Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 17 (9)
10-09-2021
Self-initiated behavioral change and disease resurgence on activity-driven networksGozzi N, Scudeler M, Paolotti D, Baronchelli A and Perra N
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 104 (1)
01-07-2021
Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de ChileGozzi N, Tizzoni M, Chinazzi M, Ferres L, Vespignani A and Perra N
Nature Communications, Springer Nature vol. 12 (1)
23-04-2021
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave in Europe and the United StatesDavis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM, Viboud C and Vespignani A
, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory vol. 2 (03-31)
26-03-2021
Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A reviewPerra N
Physics Reports, Elsevier vol. 913, 1-52.
13-02-2021
2020
Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods AnalysisGozzi N, Tizzani M, Starnini M, Ciulla F, Paolotti D, Panisson A and Perra N
Journal of Medical Internet Research, Jmir Publications vol. 22 (10)
12-10-2020
Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USADavis JT, Chinazzi M, Perra N, Mu K, Pastore y Piontti A, Ajelli M, Dean NE, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Rossi L, Sun K, Xiong X, Halloran ME, Longini IM, Viboud C and Vespignani A
, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory vol. 1 (07-14)
07-07-2020
Towards a data-driven characterization of behavioral changes induced by the seasonal fluGozzi N, Perrotta D, Paolotti D and Perra N
Plos Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 16 (5)
13-05-2020
Phase transitions in information spreading on structured populationsDavis JT, Perra N, Zhang Q, Moreno Y and Vespignani A
Nature Physics, Springer Nature vol. 16 (5), 590-596.
02-03-2020
2019
Explore with caution: mapping the evolution of scientific interest in physicsAleta A, Meloni S, Perra N and Moreno Y
Epj Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1)
11-09-2019
Modelling opinion dynamics in the age of algorithmic personalisationPerra N and Rocha LEC
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 9 (1)
13-05-2019
Spreading of computer viruses on time-varying networksBrett T, Loukas G, Moreno Y and Perra N
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 99 (5)
01-05-2019
The Effects of Local and Global Link Creation Mechanisms on Contagion Processes Unfolding on Time-Varying NetworksSun K, Ubaldi E, Zhang J, Karsai M and Perra N
In Temporal Network Theory, Springer Nature 305-324.
01-01-2019
Charting the Next Pandemic, Modeling Infectious Disease Spreading in the Data Science AgePastore y Piontti A, Perra N, Rossi L, Samay N and Vespignani A
01-01-2019
2018
Epidemic spreading on time-varying multiplex networksLiu Q-H, Xiong X, Zhang Q and Perra N
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 98 (6)
01-12-2018
Epidemic spreading in modular time-varying networksNadini M, Sun K, Ubaldi E, Starnini M, Rizzo A and Perra N
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1)
05-02-2018
Resilience management during large-scale epidemic outbreaksMassaro E, Ganin A, Perra N, Linkov I and Vespignani A
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 8 (1)
30-01-2018
Attention on Weak Ties in Social and Communication NetworksWeng L, Karsai M, Perra N, Menczer F and Flammini A
In Complex Spreading Phenomena in Social Systems, Springer Nature 213-228.
01-01-2018
2017
Combining Participatory Influenza Surveillance with Modeling and Forecasting: Three Alternative ApproachesBrownstein JS, Chu S, Marathe A, Marathe MV, Nguyen AT, Paolotti D, Perra N, Perrotta D, Santillana M, Swarup S, Tizzoni M, Vespignani A, Vullikanti AKS, Wilson ML and Zhang Q
Jmir Public Health and Surveillance, Jmir Publications vol. 3 (4)
01-11-2017
Epidemic spreading on activity-driven networks with attractivenessPozzana I, Sun K and Perra N
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 96 (4)
01-10-2017
Random walks on activity-driven networks with attractivenessAlessandretti L, Sun K, Baronchelli A and Perra N
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 95 (5)
01-05-2017
Burstiness and tie activation strategies in time-varying social networksUbaldi E, Vezzani A, Karsai M, Perra N and Burioni R
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 7 (1)
13-04-2017
Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Fusing Digital Indicators and a Mechanistic Disease ModelZhang Q, Perra N, Perrotta D, Tizzoni M, Paolotti D and Vespignani A
Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on World Wide Web., 311-319.
03-04-2017
Control Strategies of Contagion Processes in Time-Varying NetworksKarsai M and Perra N
In Temporal Network Epidemiology, Springer Nature 179-197.
01-01-2017
2016
Statistical physics of vaccinationWang Z, Bauch CT, Bhattacharyya S, d’Onofrio A, Manfredi P, Perc M, Perra N, Salathé M and Zhao D
Physics Reports, Elsevier vol. 664, 1-113.
01-12-2016
Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocationUbaldi E, Perra N, Karsai M, Vezzani A, Burioni R and Vespignani A
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 6 (1)
24-10-2016
The spreading of infectious diseases in modern socio-technical systems Comment on “Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties” by Gui-Quan Sun et al.Perra N
Physics of Life Reviews, Elsevier vol. 19, 87-89.
19-09-2016
Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season ChallengeBiggerstaff M, Alper D, Dredze M, Fox S, Fung IC-H, Hickmann KS, Lewis B, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J, Tsou M-H, Velardi P, Vespignani A, Finelli L and for the Influenza Forecasting Contest Working Group
Bmc Infectious Diseases, Springer Nature vol. 16 (1)
22-07-2016
The dynamics of information-driven coordination phenomena: A transfer entropy analysisBorge-Holthoefer J, Perra N, Gonçalves B, González-Bailón S, Arenas A, Moreno Y and Vespignani A
Science Advances, American Association For The Advancement of Science (Aaas) vol. 2 (4)
01-04-2016
2015
Contrasting effects of strong ties on SIR and SIS processes in temporal networksSun K, Baronchelli A and Perra N
The European Physical Journal B, Springer Nature vol. 88 (12)
01-12-2015
Reports of the 2015 Workshops Held at the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social MediaGarcia D, Halegoua G, Mejova Y, Perra N, Pfeffer J, Ruths D, Weber I, West R and Zia L
AI Magazine. vol. 36 (4), 119-123.
01-12-2015
The Scaling of Human Contacts and Epidemic Processes in Metapopulation NetworksTizzoni M, Sun K, Benusiglio D, Karsai M and Perra N
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 5 (1)
19-10-2015
Committed activists and the reshaping of status-quo social consensusMistry D, Zhang Q, Perra N and Baronchelli A
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 92 (4)
01-10-2015
VoroGraphDunne C, Muller M, Perra N and Martino M
Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems., 255-258.
18-04-2015
Social Data Mining and Seasonal Influenza Forecasts: The FluOutlook PlatformZhang Q, Gioannini C, Paolotti D, Perra N, Perrotta D, Quaggiotto M, Tizzoni M and Vespignani A
Lecture Notes in Computer Science. vol. 9286, 237-240.
01-01-2015
Modeling and Predicting Human Infectious DiseasesPerra N and Gonçalves B
In Social Phenomena, Springer Nature 59-83.
01-01-2015
IntroductionGonçalves B and Perra N
In Social Phenomena: From Data Analysis to Models 1-12.
01-01-2015
2014
The role of endogenous and exogenous mechanisms in the formation of R&D networksTomasello MV, Perra N, Tessone CJ, Karsai M and Schweitzer F
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 4 (1)
14-07-2014
Damage detection via shortest-path network samplingCiulla F, Perra N, Baronchelli A and Vespignani A
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 89 (5)
01-05-2014
The infection tree of global epidemicsPIONTTI APY, DA COSTA GOMES MF, SAMAY N, PERRA N and VESPIGNANI A
Network Science, Cambridge University Press (Cup) vol. 2 (1), 132-137.
01-04-2014
Controlling Contagion Processes in Activity Driven NetworksLiu S, Perra N, Karsai M and Vespignani A
Physical Review Letters, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 112 (11)
19-03-2014
Time varying networks and the weakness of strong tiesKarsai M, Perra N and Vespignani A
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 4 (1)
10-02-2014
2013
Quantifying the effect of temporal resolution on time-varying networksRibeiro B, Perra N and Baronchelli A
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 3 (1)
21-10-2013
Social Networks, Contagion Processes and the Spreading of Infectious DiseasesGonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A
In Handbook of Systems Biology 515-527.
29-08-2013
The role of information diffusion in the evolution of social networksWeng L, Ratkiewicz J, Perra N, Gonçalves B, Castillo C, Bonchi F, Schifanella R, Menczer F and Flammini A
Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining., 356-364.
11-08-2013
Contagion dynamics in time-varying metapopulation networksLiu S-Y, Baronchelli A and Perra N
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 87 (3)
01-03-2013
The Twitter of Babel: Mapping World Languages through Microblogging PlatformsMocanu D, Baronchelli A, Perra N, Gonçalves B, Zhang Q and Vespignani A
Plos One, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 8 (4)
01-01-2013
Characterizing scientific production and consumption in PhysicsZhang Q, Perra N, Gonçalves B, Ciulla F and Vespignani A
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 3 (1)
01-01-2013
Chapter 27 Social Networks, Contagion Processes and the Spreading of Infectious DiseasesGonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A
In Handbook of Systems Biology, Elsevier 515-527.
01-01-2013
2012
Random Walks and Search in Time-Varying NetworksPerra N, Baronchelli A, Mocanu D, Gonçalves B, Pastor-Satorras R and Vespignani A
Physical Review Letters, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 109 (23)
04-12-2012
Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdmTizzoni M, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Balcan D, Gonçalves B, Perra N, Colizza V and Vespignani A
Bmc Medicine, Springer Nature vol. 10 (1)
01-12-2012
Modeling Contact and Mobility Based Social Response to the Spreading of Infectious DiseasesPerra N and Vespignani A
In Modeling The Interplay Between Human Behavior and The Spread of Infectious Diseases, Springer Nature 103-123.
28-11-2012
Beating the news using social media: the case study of American IdolCiulla F, Mocanu D, Baronchelli A, Gonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A
Epj Data Science, Springer Nature vol. 1 (1)
31-07-2012
Activity driven modeling of time varying networksPerra N, Gonçalves B, Pastor-Satorras R and Vespignani A
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 2 (1)
01-01-2012
2011
Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseasesMeloni S, Perra N, Arenas A, Gómez S, Moreno Y and Vespignani A
Scientific Reports, Springer Nature vol. 1 (1)
01-01-2011
Towards a Characterization of Behavior-Disease ModelsPerra N, Balcan D, Gonçalves B and Vespignani A
Plos One, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 6 (8)
01-01-2011
Modeling Users' Activity on Twitter Networks: Validation of Dunbar's NumberGonçalves B, Perra N and Vespignani A
Plos One, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 6 (8)
01-01-2011
2009
Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemicBalcan D, Colizza V, Singer AC, Chouaid C, Hu H, Gonçalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Paolotti D, Van den Broeck W, Valleron A and Vespignani A
Plos Currents, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 1 (Influenza)
07-12-2009
Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic modelColizza V, Vespignani A, Perra N, Poletto C, Gonçalves B, Hu H, Balcan D, Paolotti D, Van den Broeck W, Tizzoni M, Bajardi P and Ramasco JJ
Plos Currents, Public Library of Science (Plos) vol. 1 (Influenza)
11-11-2009
PageRank equation and localization in the WWWPerra N, Zlatić V, Chessa A, Conti C, Donato D and Caldarelli G
Epl (Europhysics Letters), Iop Publishing vol. 88 (4)
01-11-2009
Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobilityBalcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V and Vespignani A
Bmc Medicine, Springer Nature vol. 7 (1)
10-09-2009
Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern HemisphereBajardi P, Poletto C, Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Ramasco JJ, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V and Vespignani A
Emerging Health Threats Journal, Taylor & Francis vol. 2 (1)
11-04-2009
2008
Spectral centrality measures in complex networksPerra N and Fortunato S
Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 78 (3)
01-09-2008
Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern HemisphereBajardi P, Poletto C, Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Ramasco J, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V and Vespignani A
Emerging Health Threats Journal, Taylor & Francis vol. 2
01-01-2008
Grants
Grants of specific relevance to the Centre for Complex SystemsNicola Perra - US Army Lab researchNicola Perra
£71,665 U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Army Research Laboratory
24-06-2024 - 23-06-2025