Prof Martin Neil

Professor of Computer Science and Statistics

School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science
Queen Mary University of London

m.neil@qmul.ac.uk

www.qmul.ac.uk/eecs/people/profiles/neilmartin.html

Centre for Multimodal AI

Research
Publications
Grants

Research

AI, Machine Learning, Risk, Bayesian Networks, Reliability

Interests

I am interested in intelligent risk assessment and decision analysis using knowledge and data. Typically this involves analysing and predicting the probabilities of unknown events using Bayesian statistical methods including causal, probabilistic models (Bayesian networks). In addition to working on theoretical and algorithmic foundations, this work covers a wide range of application domains such as medical analytics, legal reasoning, embedded software, operational risk in finance, systems and design reliability (including software), project risk,commercial risk, decision support, cost benefit analysis, AI and personalization, machine learning, legal argumentation, cyber security and football prediction.

Publications

Publications of specific relevance to the Centre for Multimodal AI

2024

The effect of risk communication on consumers’ risk perception, risk tolerance and utility of smart and non-smart home appliances
Hunte JL, Neil M, Fenton NE, Osman M and Bechlivanidis C
Safety Science, Elsevier vol. 174

DOI 10.1016/j.ssci.2024.106464

01-06-2024

Fighting Goliath Exposing the Flawed Science and Statistics Behind the COVID-19 Event
Fenton N

01-01-2024

A hybrid Bayesian network for medical device risk assessment and management
Hunte JL, Neil M and Fenton NE
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Elsevier vol. 241

DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109630

01-01-2024

Approach and Method for Bayesian Network Modelling: The Case for Pregnancy Outcomes in England and Wales
McLachlan S, Daley B, Saidi S, Kyrimi E, Dube K, Grossan C, Neil M, Rose L and Fenton N
Proceedings of the 17th International Joint Conference on Biomedical Engineering Systems and Technologies., 604-612.

DOI 10.5220/0012428600003657

01-01-2024

2022

Region‐based estimation of the partition functions for hybrid Bayesian network models
Lin P, Neil M, Fenton N and Dementiev E
International Journal of Intelligent Systems, Wiley vol. 37 (11), 8897-8927.

DOI 10.1002/int.22973

03-08-2022

Smart automotive technology adherence to the law: (de)constructing road rules for autonomous system development, verification and safety
Mclachlan S, Neil M, Dube K, Bogani R, Fenton N and Schaffer B
International Journal of Law and Information Technology vol. 29 (4), 255-295.

DOI 10.1093/ijlit/eaac002

QMRO

22-02-2022

A causal Bayesian network approach for consumer product safety and risk assessment.
Hunte JL, Neil M and Fenton NE
J Safety Res vol. 80, 198-214.

DOI 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.12.003

QMRO

01-02-2022

2021

A causal Bayesian network approach for consumer product safety and risk assessment
Hunte JL, Neil M and Fenton NE
Journal of Safety Research, Elsevier vol. 80, 198-214.

DOI 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.12.003

18-12-2021

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing and Hierarchical Modeling of Ivermectin Effectiveness.
Neil M and Fenton N
American Journal of Therapeutics, Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. vol. 28 (5), e576-e579.

DOI 10.1097/MJT.0000000000001450

QMRO

01-09-2021

Positive results from UK single gene testing for SARS-COV-2 may be inconclusive, negative or detecting past infections
Neil M

QMRO

23-02-2021

A Study of Using Bethe/Kikuchi Approximation for Learning Directed Graphic Models
Lin P, Neil M and Fenton N
Ieee Access, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (Ieee) vol. 9, 125428-125438.

DOI 10.1109/access.2021.3110956

QMRO

01-01-2021

2020

Real-time Online Probabilistic Medical Computation using Bayesian Networks
Mclachlan S, Paterson H, Dube K, Kyrimi E, Dementiev E, Neil M, Daley BJ, Hitman GA and Fenton NE
2020 IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI). vol. 00, 1-8.

DOI 10.1109/ichi48887.2020.9374378

QMRO

03-12-2020

Learning from behavioural changes that fail
Osman M, meder B, Fenton N, Neil M, Mclachlan S and Löfsted R
Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Elsevier Editors: Drayton L.

DOI 10.1016/j.tics.2020.09.009

QMRO

28-10-2020

Improved High Dimensional Discrete Bayesian Network Inference using Triplet Region Construction
Lin P, Neil M and Fenton N
Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, Ai Access Foundation vol. 69, 231-295.

DOI 10.1613/jair.1.12198

QMRO

27-09-2020

Medical idioms for clinical Bayesian network development
Kyrimi E, Raniere Neves M, Mclachlan S, Neil M, Marsh W and Fenton N
Journal of Biomedical Informatics, Elsevier

DOI 10.1016/j.jbi.2020.103495

QMRO

30-06-2020

Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 data reveals higher Infection Prevalence Rates and lower Fatality Rates than widely reported
Neil M, Fenton N, Osman M and McLachlan S
Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis (Routledge)

DOI 10.1101/2020.05.25.20112466

QMRO

26-05-2020

Bayesian network analysis of Covid-19 data reveals higher infection prevalence rates and lower fatality rates than widely reported
Neil M, Fenton N, Osman M and McLachlan S
Journal of Risk Research

DOI 10.1080/13669877.2020.1778771

QMRO

24-05-2020

COVID-19 infection and death rates: the need to incorporate causal explanations for the data and avoid bias in testing
Fenton N, Osman M, Mclachlan S and Neil M
Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis (Routledge)

DOI 10.1080/13669877.2020.1756381

QMRO

24-04-2020

The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect, Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie, Basic Books (2018)
Fenton N, Neil M and Constantinou A
Artificial Intelligence, Elsevier Bv vol. 284, 103286-103286.

DOI 10.1016/j.artint.2020.103286

QMRO

21-04-2020

2019

A Bayesian network approach for cybersecurity risk assessment implementing and extending the FAIR model
Wang J, Neil M and Fenton N
Computers and Security, Elsevier vol. 89

DOI 10.1016/j.cose.2019.101659

QMRO

03-11-2019

The Opportunity Prior: A proof-based prior for criminal cases
Fenton N, Lagnado D, Dahlman C and Neil M
Law, Probability and Risk, Oxford University Press (Oup)

DOI 10.1093/lpr/mgz007

QMRO

20-05-2019

Causality, the critical but often ignored component guiding us through a world of uncertainties in risk assessment
Neil M, Fenton N, Osman M and Lagnado D
Journal of Risk Research

DOI 10.1080/13669877.2019.1604564

QMRO

10-05-2019

Modelling competing legal arguments using Bayesian model comparison and averaging
Neil M, Fenton N, Lagnado D and Gill RD
Artificial Intelligence and Law, Springer Nature vol. 27 (4), 403-430.

DOI 10.1007/s10506-019-09250-3

QMRO

27-03-2019

Analyzing the Simonshaven Case Using Bayesian Networks
Fenton N, Neil M, Yet B and Lagnado D
Topics in Cognitive Science, Wiley vol. 12 (4), 1092-1114.

DOI 10.1111/tops.12417

QMRO

12-03-2019

An extension to the noisy-OR function to resolve the ‘explaining away’ deficiency for practical Bayesian network problem
FENTON NE, NEIL M and NOGUCHI T
Ieee Transactions On Knowledge and Data Engineering, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

DOI 10.1109/TKDE.2019.2891680

QMRO

10-01-2019

2018

Addressing the Practical Limitations of Noisy-OR using Conditional Inter-causal Anti-Correlation with Ranked Nodes
FENTON NE, NOGUCHI T and NEIL M
Ieee Transactions On Knowledge and Data Engineering, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

DOI 10.1109/TKDE.2018.2873314

QMRO

04-10-2018

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks
Fenton N and Neil M

DOI 10.1201/b21982

03-09-2018

Who do we trust on social policy interventions
OSMAN M, FENTON NE, Pilditch T, Lagnado D and NEIL M
Basic and Applied Social Psychology

DOI 10.1080/01973533.2018.1469986

QMRO

30-07-2018

Whom Do We Trust on Social Policy Interventions?
Osman M, Fenton N, Pilditch T, Lagnado D and Neil M
Basic and Applied Social Psychology

DOI 10.1080/01973533.2018.1469986

QMRO

30-07-2018

Improving Software Testing with Causal Modeling
Fenton N and Neil M
In Analytic Methods in Systems and Software Testing, Wiley 27-64.

DOI 10.1002/9781119357056.ch2

06-07-2018

An Improved Method for Solving Hybrid Influence Diagrams
YET B, NEIL M, FENTON N, CONSTANTINOU AC and DEMENTIEV E
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Elsevier

DOI 10.1016/j.ijar.2018.01.006

QMRO

01-04-2018

Lawnmowers versus terrorists: A highly misleading view of risk
FENTON NE and NEIL M
Significance, Royal Statistical Society vol. 15 (1), 12-15.

DOI 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01104.x

QMRO

06-02-2018

Are lawnmowers a greater risk than terrorists?
FENTON NE and NEIL M

QMRO

07-01-2018

Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information in Hybrid Models Using Dynamic Discretization
Yet B, Constantinou A, Fenton N and Neil M
Ieee Access, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (Ieee) vol. 6, 7802-7817.

DOI 10.1109/access.2018.2799527

QMRO

01-01-2018

2017

The Opportunity Prior: A Simple and Practical Solution to the Prior Probability Problem for Legal Cases
FENTON NE, Lagnado D, Dahlman C and Neil M
International Conference on AI and the Law (ICAIL 17) Kings College, London 12 Jun 2017 - 15 Jun 2017.

DOI 10.1145/3086512.3086519

QMRO

12-06-2017

Risk Management Using Bayesian Networks
Neil M and Fenton N
In Wiley Statsref: Statistics Reference Online, Wiley 1-6.

DOI 10.1002/9781118445112.stat07943

15-05-2017

2016

How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models
Fenton N, Neil M, Lagnado D, William M, Yet B and CONSTANTINOU AC
Knowledge-Based Systems

DOI 10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012

QMRO

17-09-2016

A Bayesian Network Framework for Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis with an Agricultural Development Case Study
Yet B, CONSTANTINOU AC, Fenton N, Neil M, Luedeling E and Shepherd K
Expert Systems With Applications

DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2016.05.005

QMRO

04-05-2016

Integrating expert knowledge with data in Bayesian networks: Preserving data-driven expectations when the expert variables remain unobserved
CONSTANTINOU AC, FENTON N and NEIL M
Expert Systems With Applications

DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2016.02.050

QMRO

18-03-2016

Bayes and the Law
FENTON NE, neil M and Berger D
Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application vol. 3, 51-77.

DOI 10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428

QMRO

09-03-2016

2015

Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences
Constantinou AC, Yet B, Fenton N, Neil M and Marsh W
Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, Elsevier vol. 66, 41-52.

DOI 10.1016/j.artmed.2015.09.002

QMRO

08-09-2015

Probabilistic Graphical Models Parameter Learning with Transferred Prior and Constraints
FENTON NE, Zhou Y, Hospedales T and Neil M
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Amsterdam, Netherlands 12 Jul 2015 - 16 Jul 2015., 972-981.

QMRO

13-07-2015

Probabilistic graphical models parameter learning with transferred prior and constraints
Zhou Y, Fenton N, Hospedales TM and Neil M
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence - Proceedings of the 31st Conference, UAI 2015., 972-981.

QMRO

01-01-2015

2014

Risk Aggregation in the presence of Discrete Causally Connected Random Variables
Lin P, Neil M and Fenton NE
Annals of Actuarial Science vol. 8 (2), 298-319.

DOI 10.1017/S1748499514000098

QMRO

26-08-2014

Response to on the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: response to Fenton et al..
Fenton N, Lagnado D, Hsu A, Berger D and Neil M
Sci Justice vol. 54 (4), 319-320.

DOI 10.1016/j.scijus.2014.05.005

01-07-2014

When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case)
Fenton N, Berger D, Lagnado D, Neil M and Hsu A
Science and Justice vol. 54 (4), 274-287.

DOI 10.1016/j.scijus.2013.07.002

QMRO

01-01-2014

Decision Support Software for Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Bayesian Networks
Fenton NE and Neil M
Ieee Software, Ieee Explore vol. 31 (2), 21-26.

DOI 10.1109/MS.2014.32

QMRO

01-01-2014

Bayesian network approach to multinomial parameter learning using data and expert judgments
Zhou Y, Fenton N and Neil M
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Elsevier/Science Direct vol. 55, 1252-1268.

DOI 10.1016/j.ijar.2014.02.008

01-01-2014

An Extended MPL-C Model for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning with Exterior Constraints
Zhou Y, Fenton N and Neil M
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer Nature vol. 8754, 581-596.

DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-11433-0_38

QMRO

01-01-2014

2013

Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors
Fenton NE, Neil M and Hsu A
Artificial Intelligence and Law, Springer (Part of Springer Nature) vol. 22 (1), 1-28.

DOI 10.1007/s10506-013-9147-x

QMRO

11-10-2013

A General Structure for Legal Arguments About Evidence Using Bayesian Networks
FENTON NE, Neil M and Lagnado D
Cognitive Science, Wiley Online Library vol. 37 (1), 61-102.

DOI 10.1111/cogs.12004

01-01-2013

Incorporating Expert Judgement into Bayesian Network Machine Learning
Zhou Y, Fenton N, Neil M and Zhu C
Proceedings of the Twenty-Third International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence., 3249-3250.
01-01-2013

Profiting from an inefficient association football gambling market: Prediction, risk and uncertainty using Bayesian networks
Constantinou AC, Fenton NE and Neil M
Knowledge-Based Systems vol. 50, 60-86.

DOI 10.1016/j.knosys.2013.05.008

QMRO

01-01-2013

Fast Approximate Inference in Hybrid Bayesian Networks Using Dynamic Discretisation
Langseth H, Marquez D and Neil M
Lecture Notes in Computer Science. vol. 7930, 225-234.

DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-38637-4_23

01-01-2013

2012

pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes
Constantinou A, FENTON NE and Neil M
Knowledge Based Systems, Elsevier vol. 36, 322-339.

DOI 10.1016/j.knosys.2012.07.008

QMRO

01-12-2012

Optimizing the Calculation of Conditional Probability Tables in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Binary Factorization
Neil M, Chen X and Fenton NE
Ieee Transactions On Knowledge and Data Engineering, Ieee vol. 7 (24), 1306-1312.

DOI 10.1109/TKDE.2011.87

01-07-2012

Availability modelling of repairable systems using Bayesian networks
Neil M and Marquez D
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Elsevier/Science Direct vol. 25 (4), 698-704.

DOI 10.1016/j.engappai.2010.06.003

01-06-2012

Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning
FENTON NE, Lagnado D and Neil M
Argument and Computation, Taylor & Francis Online vol. 4 (1), 46-63.

DOI 10.1080/19462166.2012.682656

25-05-2012

Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks
FENTON NE and Neil M

01-01-2012

2011

Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks
FENTON NE and Neil M
Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy vol. 36, 114-150.
01-01-2011

The use of Bayes' and causal modelling in decision making, uncertainty and risk
FENTON NE and Neil M
Upgrade, The Journal of Cepis (Council of European Professional Informatics Societies) vol. 12 (5), 10-21.
01-01-2011

2010

Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments.
Fenton N and Neil M
J Biomed Inform vol. 43 (4), 485-495.

DOI 10.1016/j.jbi.2010.02.004

01-08-2010

Improved Reliability Modeling using Bayesian Networks and Dynamic Discretization
Neil M, Marquez D and Fenton N
Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety vol. 95 (4), 412-425.

DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2009.11.012

01-01-2010

Software project and quality modelling using Bayesian networks
Fenton NE, Hearty P, Neil M and Radliński Ł
In Artificial Intelligence Applications For Improved Software Engineering Development: New Prospects, Igi Global 1-25. Editors: Meziane F and Vadera S.

DOI 10.4018/978-1-60566-758-4

01-01-2010

Improved reliability modeling using Bayesian networks and dynamic discretization
Marquez D, Neil M and Fenton N
Reliability Engineering & System Safety vol. 95 (4), 412-425.

DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2009.11.012

01-01-2010

2009

Dependability Modelling of Repairable Systems using Bayesian Networks
Neil M and Marquez D
Ifac-Papersonline, Elsevier vol. 42 (5), 221-226.

DOI 10.3182/20090610-3-it-4004.00043

01-06-2009

Dependability modelling of repairable systems using Bayesian Networks
Neil M and Marquez D
IFAC Proceedings Volumes (IFAC-PapersOnline). vol. 2 (PART 1), 221-226.

DOI 10.3182/20090610-3-it-4004.00043

01-01-2009

Predicting Project Velocity in XP Using a Learning Dynamic Bayesian Network Model
Hearty P, Fenton N, Marquez D and Neil M
Ieee T Software Eng vol. 35 (1), 124-137.

DOI 10.1109/TSE.2008.76

01-01-2009

Software Project and Quality Modelling Using Bayesian Networks
N Fenton MN and Radliński Ł
In Artificial Intelligence Applications For Improved Software Engineering Development: New Prospects. (Part of The Advances in Intelligent Information Technologies (Aiit) Book Series), Information Science Reference. 1-25.

DOI 10.4018/978-1-60566-758-4.ch001

01-01-2009

Modeling Operational Risk in Financial Institutions using Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Neil M and Hager D
Journal of Operational Risk vol. 4 (1), 3-33.

DOI 10.21314/jop.2009.057

01-01-2009

2008

Solving dynamic fault trees using a new hybrid Bayesian network inference algorithm
Marquez D, Neil M and Fenton N
2008 Mediterranean Conference On Control and Automation - Conference Proceedings, Med'08, 609-614.

DOI 10.1109/MED.2008.4602222

06-10-2008

On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets
Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W, Hearty P, Radlinski L and Krause P
Empirical Software Engineering vol. 13 (5), 499-537.

DOI 10.1007/s10664-008-9072-x

01-10-2008

Avoiding legal fallacies in practice using Bayesian networks
Fenton NE and Neil M
Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics Lausanne, Switzerland 20 Aug 2008 - 23 Aug 2008.
01-01-2008

Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks
Neil M, Tailor M, Marquez D, Fenton NE and Hearty P
Reliability Engineering and System Safety vol. 93 (7), 933-939.

DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.009

01-01-2008

Solving Dynamic Fault Trees using a New Hybrid Bayesian Network Inference Algorithm
Marquez D, Neil M and Fenton N
2008 MEDITERRANEAN CONFERENCE ON CONTROL AUTOMATION, VOLS 1-4., 1526-1531.

DOI 10.1109/MED.2008.4602222

01-01-2008

Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability
FENTON NE, Neil M and Marquez D
Proceedings of The Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O, Journal of Risk and Reliability, Institution of Mechanical Engineers vol. 222 (4), 701-712.

DOI 10.1243/1748006XJRR161

01-01-2008

Using Bayesian Networks to Model the Operational Risk to Information Technology Infrastructure in Financial Institutions
Neil M, Marquez D and Fenton N
Journal of Financial Transformation vol. 22, 131-138.
01-01-2008

2007

Using ranked nodes to model qualitative judgments in Bayesian Networks
Fenton NE, Neil M and Caballero JG
Ieee T Knowl Data En vol. 19 (10), 1420-1432.

DOI 10.1109/TKDE.2007.1068

01-10-2007

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization
Neil M, Tailor M and Marquez D
Stat Comput vol. 17 (3), 219-233.

DOI 10.1007/s11222-007-9018-y

01-09-2007

Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks
Neil M, FENTON NE, Hearty P, Marquez D and Tailor M
Reliability Engineering & System Safety vol. 93, 1-19.

DOI 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.009

01-03-2007

Using Bayesian Networks and Simulation for Data Fusion and Risk Analysis
Neil M, Fenton N and Marquez D
In Nato Science For Peace and Security Series: Information and Communication Security, Ios Press, Nieuwe Hemweg 6b, 1013 Bg Amsterdam, The Netherlands Editors: Skanata and Byrd DM.
01-01-2007

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization
Neil M, Tailor M and Marquez D
Statistics and Computing vol. 17, 219-233-219-233.

DOI 10.1007/s11222-007-9018-y

01-01-2007

Predicting software defects in varying development lifecycles using Bayesian nets
Fenton N, Neil M, Marsh W, Hearty P, Marquez D, Krause P and Mishra R
Inform Software Tech vol. 49 (1), 32-43.

DOI 10.1016/j.infsof.2006.09.001

01-01-2007

Project Scheduling: Improved approach to incorporate uncertainty using Bayesian Networks
Khodakarami V, Fenton N and Neil M
Project Management Journal vol. 38, 39-49.

DOI 10.1177/875697280703800205

01-01-2007

Improved Dynamic Fault Tree modelling using Bayesian Networks
Marquez D, Neil M and Fenton NE
The 37th Annual IEEE/IFIP International Conference on Dependable Systems and Networks, DSN 2007.
01-01-2007

Empirical Analysis of Software Defect Types
Radliński Ł, Fenton NE, Marquez D and Hearty P
In Information Systems Architecture and Technology: Information Technology and Web Engineering: Models, Concepts and Challenges (Proceedings of 28 International Isat Conference), Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki WrocłAwskiej, WrocłAw 223-231-223-231.
01-01-2007

Improved Decision-Making for Software Managers Using Bayesian Networks
Radliński Ł, Fenton NE, Neil M and Marquez D

01-01-2007

Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction
Fenton NE, Neil M, Marsh W, Hearty P, Radlinski L and Krause P
ICSE PROMISE (Predictive Models in Software Engineering) 07 Minneapolis, USA 1 Jan 1970.

DOI 10.1109/PROMISE.2007.11

01-01-2007

Using Ranked nodes to model qualitative judgements in Bayesian Networks
Fenton NE, Neil M and Gallan J
Ieee Transactions On Knowledge and Data Engineering vol. 19, 1420-1432-1420-1432.
01-01-2007

Managing Risk in the Modern World: Bayesian Networks and the Applications
Fenton NE and Neil M

01-01-2007

A new Bayesian Network approach to Reliability modelling
Marquez D, Neil M and Fenton NE
5th International Mathematical Methods in Reliability Conference (MMR 07).
01-01-2007

Modelling Prior Productivity and Defect Rates in a Causal Model for Software Project Risk Assessment
Radliński Ł, Fenton NE, Neil M and Marquez D
Polish Journal of Environmental Studies vol. 16 (4A), 256-260.
01-01-2007

2006

A Software Metrics Challenge: Data for Project Prediction
Neil M, Fenton N and MARSH DWR
29th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 2007), Minneapolis, USA.
01-12-2006

Expert elicitation for reliable system design - Comment
Fenton N and Neil M
Stat Sci vol. 21 (4), 451-453.

DOI 10.1214/088342306000000510

01-11-2006

Comment: Expert elicitation for reliable system design
Fenton N and Neil M
Statistical Science vol. 21 (4), 451-453.

DOI 10.1214/088342306000000529

01-11-2006

Predicting football results using Bayesian nets and other machine learning techniques
Joseph A, Fenton NE and Neil M
Knowl-Based Syst vol. 19 (7), 544-553.

DOI 10.1016/j.knosys.2006.04.011

01-11-2006

AgenaRisk
Neil M and FENTON NE

01-03-2006

Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks
Neil M, Tailor M, Fenton N, Marquez D and Hearty P
First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (ARES’06)., 817-823-817-823.

DOI 10.1109/ARES.2006.83

01-01-2006

Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Discretisation
Fenton NE, Radlinski L and Neil M
In Software Engineering Techniques: Design For Quality (Prceedings of Software Engineering Techniques 2006, Warsaw, Poland, 17-20 Oct 2006), Springer, Boston 139-148-139-148. Editors: Sacha K.

DOI 10.1007/978-0-387-39388-9_14

01-01-2006

Bayesian networks for software process control
Neil M, FENTON NE, Krause P and Mishra R
Ieee Transactions On Software Engineering
01-01-2006

Predicting Software Defects in Varying Development Lifecycles using Bayesian Nets
Neil M, FENTON NE, Marsh W, Mishra R and Krause P
ICSE (International Conference on Software Engineering) 2006, May 20-28, 2006, Shanghai, China.
01-01-2006

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design
Fenton NE and Neil M
Statistical Science vol. 21, 451-453-451-453.

DOI 10.1214/088342306000000529

01-01-2006

Modeling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks
Neill M, Tailor M, Marquez D, Fenton N and Hearty P
First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security, Proceedings., 817-821.

DOI 10.1109/ARES.2006.83

01-01-2006

2005

Using Bayesian networks to model expected and unexpected operational losses
Neil M, Fenton N and Tailor M
Risk Anal vol. 25 (4), 963-972.

DOI 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00641.x

01-08-2005

Improved Methods for building large-scale Bayesian Networks
NEIL MD and Fenton NE
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) 2005, Edinburgh University.
01-01-2005

Automated population of causal models for improved software risk assessment
Hearty P, FENTON NE, Neil M and Cates P
20th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering Long Beach, California, USA 7 Nov 2005 - 11 Nov 2005., 433-434.

DOI 10.1145/1101908.1101990

01-01-2005

Improved Software Defect Prediction
NEIL MD and Fenton NE
10th European SEPG, London.
01-01-2005

A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Models
Fenton NE and Neil M
In Machine Learning Applications in Software Engineering, World Scientific Publishing Co 72-86-72-86. Editors: Zhang D and JJP T.
01-01-2005

2004

Making resource decisions for software projects
Fenton N, Marsh W, Neil M, Cates P, Forey S and Tailor M
ICSE 2004: 26TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, PROCEEDINGS., 397-406.

DOI 10.1109/icse.2004.1317462

01-01-2004

Combining evidence in risk analysis using Bayesian networks
Fenton NE and Neil M
Safety Critical Systems Newsletter vol. 14, 8-13-8-13.
01-01-2004

2003

Improved Programme Selection
Neil M and FENTON NE

30-10-2003

Assessing Vehicle Reliability using Bayesian Networks
Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S and Harris R
In Global Vehicle Reliability, Professional Engineering Publishing 25-42-25-42. Editors: Strutt JE and Hall PL.
01-01-2003

Measuring & Managing Culturally Inspired Risk
Neil M, Shaw R, Johnson S, Malcolm B, Donald I and Qiu XC
11th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium Bristol, UK 4 Feb 2003 - 6 Feb 2003., 43-61.

DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-0653-1_3

01-01-2003

Modeling an Air Traffic Control Environment Using Bayesian Belief Networks
Neil M, Malcolm B and Shaw R
21st International System Safety Conference 2003 Ottawa, Ontario Canada 4 Aug 2003 - 8 Aug 2003.
01-01-2003

Assessing vehicle reliability using Bayesian networks
Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S and Harris R
GLOBAL VEHICLE RELIABILITY., 25-41. Editors: Strutt JE and Hall PL.
01-01-2003

Software Quality Prediction Using Bayesian Networks
Neil M, FENTON NE and Krause P
In Software Engineering With Computational Intelligence. Khoshgoftaar, Tm (Ed), Kluwer

DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-0429-0_6

01-01-2003

2002

Software measurement: Uncertainty and causal modeling
Fenton N, Krause P and Neil M
Ieee Software vol. 19 (4), 116-+.

DOI 10.1109/MS.2002.1020298

01-07-2002

Probabilistic Modelling for Software Quality Control
Fenton NE, Krause P and Neil M
Journal of Applied Non-Classical Logics vol. 12 (2), 173-188.

DOI 10.3166/jancl.12.173-188

01-01-2002

2001

Making decisions: using Bayesian nets and MCDA
Fenton N and Neil M
Knowl-Based Syst vol. 14 (7), 307-325.

DOI 10.1016/S0950-7051(00)00071-X

01-11-2001

Using Bayesian belief networks to predict the reliability of military vehicles
Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S and Harris R
Comput Control Eng J vol. 12 (1), 11-20.

DOI 10.1049/cce:20010103

01-02-2001

Probabilistic Modelling for Software Quality Control
Fenton N, Krause P and Neil M
Lecture Notes in Computer Science. vol. 2143, 444-453.

DOI 10.1007/3-540-44652-4_39

01-01-2001

Software Metrics: Uncertainty and causal Modelling
Neil M, FENTON NE and Krause P
EuroSPI conference, Limerick Institute of Technology.

DOI 10.1109/ms.2002.1020298

01-01-2001

2000

Building large-scale Bayesian networks
Neil M, Fenton N and Nielsen L
Knowl Eng Rev vol. 15 (3), 257-284.

DOI 10.1017/S0269888900003039

01-09-2000

Software metrics: roadmap
Fenton NE and Neil M
ICSE 2000: Proceedings of the Conference on The Future of Software Engineering., 357-370-357-370.

DOI 10.1145/336512.336588

01-01-2000

The Jury Fallacy and the use of Bayesian nets to simplify probabilistic legal arguments
Fenton NE and Neil M
Mathematics Today (Bulletin of The Ima) vol. 36 (6), 180-187.
01-01-2000

Bayesian belief nets: a causal model for predicting defect rates and resource requirements
Fenton NE and Neil M
Software Testing and Quality Engineering vol. 2, 48-53-48-53.
01-01-2000

Bayesian Belief Networks for Safety Assessment of Computer-based Systems
Littlewood B, Strigini L, Wright D, Fenton NE and Neil M
In System Performance Evaluation Methodologies and Applications, Crc Press, Boca Raton 349-364-349-364. Editors: Gelenbe E.
01-01-2000

Building large-scale Bayesian Networks
Neil M, Fenton N and Nielsen L
The Knowledge Engineering Review, 15(3) vol. 15, 257-284-257-284.

DOI 10.1017/S0269888900003039

01-01-2000

1999

Software metrics: successes, failures and new directions
Fenton NE and Neil M
Journal of Systems and Software vol. 47 (2-3), 149-157.

DOI 10.1016/S0164-1212(99)00035-7

01-01-1999

A critique of software defect prediction models
Fenton NE and Neil M
Software Engineering, Ieee Transactions On vol. 25 (5), 675-689.

DOI 10.1109/32.815326

01-01-1999

1998

A strategy for improving safety related software engineering standards
Fenton NE and Neil M
Software Engineering, Ieee Transactions On vol. 24 (11), 1002-1013.

DOI 10.1109/32.730547

01-01-1998

Assessing dependability of safety critical systems using diverse evidence
Fenton NE, Littlewood B, Neil M, Strigini L, Sutcliffe A and Wright D
Iee Proceedings Software vol. 145, 35-39-35-39.

DOI 10.1049/ip-sen:19984895

01-01-1998

Examination of bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems
Courtois PJ, Fenton NE, Littlewood B, Neil M, Strigini L and Wright D

01-01-1998

Lessons from using Z to specify a software tool
Neil M, Ostralenk G, Tobin M and Southworth M
Ieee Transactions On Software Engineering vol. 24, 15-23-15-23.

DOI 10.1109/32.663995

01-01-1998

1996

Predicting Software Quality using Bayesian Belief Networks
Neil M and Fenton N
Proceedings of the 21st Annual Software Engineering Workshop at NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre.
01-12-1996

Uncertainty in Software-Intensive Systems
Littlewood B, Neil M and Ostrolenk G
High Integrity Systems Journal vol. 1, 407-413-407-413.
01-01-1996

The Role of Models in Managing Uncertainty of Software-Intensive Systems
Littlewood B, Neil M and Ostrolenk G
Reliability Engineering and System Safety vol. 46, 87-95-87-95.

DOI 10.1016/0951-8320(95)00073-B

01-01-1996

Applying Bayesian belief networks to systems dependability assessment
Neil M, Littlewood B and Fenton NE
In Safety-Critical Systems: The Convergence of High Tech and Human Factors; Proceedings of The 4th Safety Critical Systems Symposium, Springer Verlag 71-93. Editors: Redmill F.

DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-1480-2_5

01-01-1996

1995

Introducing Metrics into Industry: A Perspective on GQM
Bache RM and Neil MD
Software Quality Assurance and Measurement: A Worldwide Perspective.
01-12-1995

Statistical Control of Software Quality
Neil MD

01-01-1995

1994

Cost Effective Evaluation of a COBOL Parser Using an Operational Profile
Ostrolenk G, Tobin M, Southworth M and Neil M
Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Conference of the Centre for Software Reliability (CSR).
01-01-1994

Measurement as an alternative to Bureaucracy for the achievement of Software Quality
Neil MD
Software Quality Journal vol. 3, 65-78-65-78.

DOI 10.1007/BF00213631

01-01-1994

Metrics Analysis
Neil MD and Bache RM

01-01-1994

1993

Approaches to Maintenance Process Improvement via Measurement
Neil MD and Lano K
European Conference on Software Maintenance. The CSM (Centre for Software Maintenance), Durham University.
27-09-1993

Data Linkage Maps
Neil MD and Bache RM
Journal For Software Maintenance: Research and Practice vol. 5, 223-240-223-240.
01-01-1993

Software Process Improvement through the GQM Approach: A Maintenance Case Study, Lake Tahoe, Nevada, USA
Woherem EE, Neil MD and Estdale JF
3rd International Conference on Software Quality.
01-01-1993

Data linkage maps
Neil M and Bache R
Journal of Software Maintenance Research and Practice, Wiley vol. 5 (3), 155-164.

DOI 10.1002/smr.4360050304

01-01-1993

1992

Multivariate Assessment of Software Products
Neil MD
Journal of Software Testing, Verification and Reliability vol. 1, 17-37-17-37.
01-01-1992

1990

Validating Technologies for Certifying Software Products
Bache RM and Neil M
In Proceedings of Ifip Conference On Approving Software Products (Asp-90), North-Holland
01-01-1990

Measures for Maintenance Management: A Case Study
Neil MD, Slater D and Cole RJ
Journal For Software Maintenance: Research and Practice vol. 2, 223-240-223-240.

DOI 10.1002/smr.4360020404

01-01-1990

Grants

Grants of specific relevance to the Centre for Multimodal AI

Knowledge Discovery from Health Use Data
William Marsh, Martin Neil and John Robson
£171,569 Alan Turing Institute, The
01-04-2019 - 31-12-2020

PAMBAYESIAN_FULL
Norman Fenton, William Marsh, Martin Neil, Paul Curzon, Akram Alomainy, Dylan Morrissey, Graham Hitman, Anita Patel, Frances Humby, David Collier and Victoria Tzortziou Brown
£1,531,821 EPSRC Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
01-07-2017 - 30-06-2021

Improved Understanding of Causal Models
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil
£383,510 Leverhulme Trust
16-01-2017 - 19-02-2020